Super Bowl 2026 Predictions: $615M Volume on Polymarket
Polymarket's Super Bowl LIX markets have exploded to $615M+ in trading volume—making it one of the largest sports prediction markets ever. With the Chiefs dynasty crumbling and the Eagles leading NFC odds, here's everything you need to know about betting on Super Bowl 2026.
Current Super Bowl LIX Odds
| Team | Odds | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | ~29% | NFC Leader |
| Buffalo Bills | ~18-19% | 9-4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | ~12% | 8-2 |
| Denver Broncos | ~20% | AFC West Leader |
| Kansas City Chiefs | ~2% | 45-1 odds |
Odds as of Week 14, 2025 season
Market Details
| Total Volume | $615M+ |
| Event Date | February 8, 2026 |
| Location | Santa Clara, California |
| Resolution | Super Bowl winner |
The Chiefs Dynasty Collapse
Historic Collapse
- • Out of AFC West race for first time in 10 seasons
- • 45-1 odds to win Super Bowl (down from favorites)
- • 14.2% playoff chance per ESPN FPI
- • Must make playoffs as wild card team
- • Three-peat dreams shattered
The Chiefs' collapse is one of the biggest stories of the 2025 NFL season. After winning back-to-back Super Bowls and chasing an unprecedented three-peat, Kansas City now faces the possibility of missing the playoffs entirely.
Conference Championship Odds
AFC Championship
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | ~20% |
| Buffalo Bills | ~19% |
| Others | Various |
NFC Championship
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | ~29% |
| Green Bay Packers | ~16% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | ~12% |
See What Whales Are Trading Right Now
Get instant alerts when top traders make moves. Track P&L, win rates, and copy winning strategies.
Free forever. No credit card required.
Division Winners
| Division | Leader | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| NFC East | Philadelphia Eagles | 89% |
| AFC West | Denver Broncos | 84% |
| NFC East (2nd) | Dallas Cowboys | 5% |
| AFC West (2nd) | LA Chargers | 16% |
Taylor Swift Super Bowl Parlay
The Ultimate Parlay
Polymarket has a special market that resolves to "Yes" if ALL conditions are met:
- • Travis Kelce scores a touchdown
- • Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl
- • Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift kiss on venue grounds
Note: A kiss on the cheek counts. With Chiefs at 45-1, this parlay is extremely unlikely.
Key Contenders Analysis
Philadelphia Eagles
- Record: 8-2, projected #1 NFC seed
- Super Bowl odds: 12.6% per computer models (best in NFL)
- Playoff probability: 88.7%
- Division odds: 85.7% to win NFC East
- Conference record: 7-1 (best in NFC)
- Key advantage: Head-to-head tiebreakers over Rams, Bucs, Packers, Lions
Buffalo Bills
- Record: 9-4 after comeback win over Bengals
- Super Bowl odds: 17% to make Super Bowl, 9.6% to win
- Playoff odds: -10000 to make playoffs
- Win total: -140 to exceed 13.5 wins
- Key games: Erased double-digit fourth-quarter deficit vs Bengals
Trading Strategies
Value Hunting
- Longshots: Chiefs at 45-1 could be value if they make playoffs
- Division locks: Eagles 89%, Broncos 84% are near-certainties
- Hedge opportunities: Buy multiple contenders to guarantee profit
- Weekly monitoring: Odds shift dramatically with injuries/results
Risk Factors
- Injuries: Star player injuries can flip odds overnight
- Playoff format: Single-elimination creates variance
- Weather: February outdoor games add unpredictability
- Liquidity: Check spreads before large orders
Key Takeaways
- Super Bowl LIX markets have $615M+ in trading volume
- Chiefs collapsed to 45-1 odds—out of AFC West race for first time in 10 years
- Eagles lead computer models at 12.6% Super Bowl win probability
- Bills (9.6%) and Rams (NFC favorite) are top contenders
- Super Bowl LX scheduled for February 8, 2026 in Santa Clara
- Taylor Swift parlay requires Chiefs win + Kelce TD + kiss
Track NFL Betting Whales
PolyTrack monitors large positions across all Polymarket sports markets—see where smart money is betting on Super Bowl LIX.
Frequently Asked Questions
Rams lead NFC at ~29%. Bills at ~18-19%. Eagles at ~12%. Chiefs collapsed to 45-1 odds. Super Bowl LIX has $615M+ in trading volume.
Related Articles
Stop Guessing. Start Following Smart Money.
Get instant alerts when whales make $10K+ trades. Track P&L, win rates, and copy winning strategies.