Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire: $50M Bet at 6% Odds
The Russia-Ukraine ceasefire market is the largest geopolitical bet on Polymarket, with $50+ million in volume and nearly $1 million in liquidity. With Trump returning to office promising to end the war, odds sit at just 6% for a 2025 ceasefire. Here's what traders are betting on and how whales are positioning.
Current Market Odds
| Market | Yes Odds | Volume | Deadline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceasefire in 2025 | 6% | $50M+ | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Ceasefire by March 31, 2026 | 24% | $4M | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Russia captures Pokrovsk by Dec 31 | 52% | $2.7M | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Russia captures Myrnohrad by Dec 31 | 36% | $566K | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Putin meets Zelenskyy in 2025 | 1% | $3M | Dec 31, 2025 |
The Trump Factor
Trump's campaign promise to "end the war in 24 hours" created a separate market:
Market
"Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days"
Current Odds
~15%
Resolution Date
April 29, 2026
Implied Probability
Higher than 2025 ceasefire
The gap between 6% (2025 ceasefire) and 15% (Trump 90 days) shows traders believe any ceasefire requires Trump in office—and even then, it's unlikely within his first 3 months.
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Why Traders Are Bearish on Ceasefire
Russian Position
- Military momentum: Russia making slow but steady territorial gains
- Maximalist demands: Putin wants NATO withdrawal guarantees
- No urgency: Russia not facing domestic pressure to end war
- Sanctions adaptation: Economy has adjusted to Western pressure
Ukrainian Position
- Territorial integrity: Zelenskyy can't accept land losses politically
- NATO membership: Key demand Russia won't accept
- Western fatigue: Aid may decrease but Ukraine still fighting
- Kursk offensive: Ukraine holding Russian territory as bargaining chip
Structural Barriers
- Definition problems: What counts as "ceasefire"? Formal agreement or de facto pause?
- Verification: No trusted mechanism to confirm compliance
- Security guarantees: Who enforces any agreement?
- Crimea/Donbas: Fundamental disputes remain unresolved
Whale Positioning
Analysis of large traders reveals:
| Position Type | Whale Activity | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Ceasefire "No" | Heavy accumulation | Consensus: no 2025 deal |
| March 2026 Ceasefire "Yes" | Moderate interest | Speculative Trump bet |
| Pokrovsk capture "Yes" | Active trading | Military analysis focus |
| Putin-Zelenskyy meeting | Minimal | Seen as impossible |
Trading Strategies
The Safe Play: "No" on 2025
- 94¢ to make 6¢ (6.4% return in ~3 weeks)
- Annualized: ~100%+ if you can repeat monthly
- Risk: Major diplomatic breakthrough
- Assessment: Very likely to pay out
The Speculative Play: March 2026 "Yes"
- 24¢ for potential $1 payout (4x return)
- Thesis: Trump pressures both sides post-inauguration
- Risk: Neither side has incentive to deal
- Assessment: Long shot but not impossible
Military Outcome Bets
- Pokrovsk at 52%: Near coin-flip, requires military analysis
- Track DeepState/ISW maps for ground truth
- Be aware: Polymarket uses these sources for resolution
DeepState Controversy
Ukrainian war-tracking project DeepState accused Polymarket of using its battlefield data "for real-time gambling" without permission. This highlights the ethical complexities of betting on active conflicts.
What Could Change the Odds
Bullish for Ceasefire (Odds Increase)
- Trump directly negotiating with Putin
- Major military setback for either side
- European pressure on Ukraine to negotiate
- Chinese mediation effort
- US threatening to cut aid entirely
Bearish for Ceasefire (Odds Stay Low)
- Russian winter offensive gains
- Ukraine receives new Western weapons
- Either leader makes maximalist statements
- Escalation (nuclear rhetoric, NATO involvement)
Resolution Criteria
The ceasefire market resolves "Yes" if:
- Russia and Ukraine agree to a formal ceasefire
- OR a de facto cessation of major hostilities occurs
- Resolution source: Major news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC)
- "Frozen conflict" status may qualify depending on market rules
Key Takeaways
- $50M+ bet on Russia-Ukraine ceasefire—largest geopolitical market
- Only 6% odds for 2025 ceasefire (24 days remaining)
- March 2026 at 24%—Trump factor priced in
- Whales heavily positioned against near-term peace
- Military outcome markets (Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad) more liquid
- Resolution may be disputed if "ceasefire" is ambiguous
Track Geopolitical Smart Money
PolyTrack monitors whale activity across all geopolitical markets—see how sophisticated traders are positioning on Ukraine, Middle East, and international relations.
Frequently Asked Questions
Only 6% for 2025 ceasefire (24 days remaining). March 2026 is at 24%, reflecting the Trump factor. Putin-Zelenskyy meeting in 2025 is at just 1%.
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