How to Read Polymarket Odds: Complete Beginner Guide
PolyTrack Team
PolyTrack
New to Polymarket? Understanding how odds work is crucial for profitable trading. Unlike traditional sports betting, Polymarket uses a simple system: the price equals the probability. This guide explains exactly how to read Polymarket odds, calculate profits, and find value bets.
Price = Probability
Polymarket's pricing is elegant in its simplicity:
Core Principle
$0.65 = 65% probability
If YES shares trade at $0.65, the market believes there's a 65% chance the event happens. YES + NO always sum to ~$1.00.
How Profit Works
Winning shares pay $1.00. Losing shares pay $0.00. Your profit depends on your entry price:
Example: Buy YES at $0.40
- Investment: 100 shares × $0.40 = $40
- If YES wins: 100 × $1.00 = $100 → $60 profit (150% ROI)
- If NO wins: 100 × $0.00 = $0 → $40 loss (100%)
Profit Formula
ROI if Win = ((1.00 - Buy Price) / Buy Price) × 100%Buy at $0.40 → ROI = (0.60 / 0.40) × 100 = 150%
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Quick Reference Table
| Price | Probability | ROI if Win |
|---|---|---|
| $0.10 | 10% | 900% |
| $0.25 | 25% | 300% |
| $0.40 | 40% | 150% |
| $0.50 | 50% | 100% |
| $0.65 | 65% | 54% |
| $0.80 | 80% | 25% |
YES vs NO Shares
Every market has two sides. If YES is $0.65, NO is roughly $0.35. You can bet either way:
- Buy YES: You think the event WILL happen
- Buy NO: You think the event WON'T happen
Finding Value Bets
Value exists when your estimated probability differs from the market price:
Value Bet Example
Market: "Will it rain tomorrow?"
Market price: YES at $0.45 (45% implied)
Your analysis: Weather forecast shows 70% rain chance
Edge: 70% - 45% = 25% value → Buy YES
Common Mistakes
- Confusing probability with certainty: 90% still means 10% chance of losing
- Ignoring the spread: Bid-ask gap eats into profits
- Overconfidence: The market aggregates many opinions—why do you know better?
- Chasing cheap shares: $0.05 shares are cheap for a reason
Ready to start? Check out our complete beginner's guide.
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