NFL Playoffs 2025: Chiefs Collapse, Eagles Lead on Polymarket
The 2025 NFL season has delivered shocking upsets and historic collapses. With Week 14 underway, Polymarket odds tell a dramatic story: the Chiefs dynasty is crumbling, the Eagles lead the league, and the playoff picture is wide open. Here's the complete breakdown.
Current Playoff Picture
NFC Standings & Odds
| Team | Record | Division Odds | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 8-2 | 89% | 88.7% |
| Los Angeles Rams | — | NFC West | High |
| Green Bay Packers | — | ~16% | High |
| Dallas Cowboys | — | 5% | Low |
AFC Standings & Odds
| Team | Record | Division Odds | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | — | 84% | High |
| Buffalo Bills | 9-4 | — | -10000 |
| LA Chargers | — | 16% | Wild Card |
| Kansas City Chiefs | — | 0% | 14.2% |
The Chiefs Collapse
Dynasty Crumbling
- • AFC West eliminated: First time in 10 seasons
- • Super Bowl odds: 45-1 (down from favorites)
- • Playoff odds: +390 underdog to make playoffs
- • FPI projection: Only 14.2% playoff probability
- • Three-peat: Dream officially dead
The Kansas City Chiefs' historic run has come to a stunning end. After winning back-to-back Super Bowls and dominating the AFC for a decade, Patrick Mahomes and company are now longshots to even make the playoffs. They must earn a wild-card spot to have any postseason hopes.
Eagles: Computer's Favorite
Leading the League
| Super Bowl Win % | 12.6% (best in NFL) |
| Conference Record | 7-1 (best in NFC) |
| Division Odds | 85.7% |
| Playoff Probability | 88.7% |
| Tiebreakers | Over Rams, Bucs, Packers, Lions |
Philadelphia is the only team above 10% in computer models to win the Super Bowl. Their 7-1 conference record and multiple head-to-head tiebreakers make them the clear NFC favorite heading into the playoff stretch.
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Bills: AFC's Best Hope
| Record | 9-4 |
| Super Bowl Projection | 17% to make, 9.6% to win |
| Playoff Odds | -10000 |
| Win Total Line | -140 to exceed 13.5 |
| Key Win | Comeback over Bengals |
Buffalo's fourth-quarter comeback against the Bengals was crucial. The Bills erased a double-digit deficit to improve to 9-4, keeping them in range for the AFC East title and solidifying their hold on a top wild-card spot.
Conference Championship Markets
NFC Championship
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | ~29% |
| Green Bay Packers | ~16% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | ~12% |
AFC Championship
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | ~20% |
| Buffalo Bills | ~19% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | <5% |
Betting Strategies
Value Plays
- Chiefs at 45-1: High risk, but if they make playoffs...
- Eagles division lock: 89% odds approaching certainty
- Bills playoff lock: -10000 is essentially guaranteed
- Wild card chaos: Multiple teams fighting for spots
Hedging Approaches
- Multi-team Super Bowl hedge: Buy top 3-4 contenders
- Conference champion split: NFC vs AFC allocation
- Division lock arbitrage: Capture high-probability value
Key Storylines
- Broncos resurgence: Leading AFC West unexpectedly
- Rams dominance: NFC favorites after strong season
- Wild card race: Multiple teams at 6-7 wins fighting
- Injury watch: Star player health crucial for odds
Key Takeaways
- Chiefs eliminated from AFC West race for first time in 10 years
- Eagles lead all teams with 12.6% Super Bowl win probability
- Bills at 9-4 with -10000 odds to make playoffs
- Broncos lead AFC West at 84% division odds
- Eagles 89%, Broncos 84% division odds near-certainties
- Chiefs at +390 underdog just to make playoffs
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Frequently Asked Questions
Chiefs are +390 underdogs to make playoffs with only 14.2% probability per ESPN FPI. They're eliminated from AFC West race for the first time in 10 seasons.
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