AlphaRaccoon $1M Google Trends Scandal: 22/23 Bets Correct
Sarah Chen
PolyTrack
A pseudonymous trader known as "AlphaRaccoon" made $1 million+ in under 24 hours betting on Google's 2025 Year in Search rankings—hitting 22 out of 23 bets correctly. The incredible accuracy has sparked insider trading allegations and raised questions about prediction market integrity.
What Happened
The $1M+ Day
| Trader | AlphaRaccoon (now 0xafEe) |
| Initial Deposit | $3 million |
| Total Profit | $1,000,000+ |
| Win Rate | 22 / 23 (95.6%) |
| Open Positions | $3.9 million |
| Time Frame | Under 24 hours |
The Winning Trades
The d4vd Bet (20x Return)
The most spectacular trade was betting on d4vd, a 20-year-old singer, to be the #1 most searched person on Google in 2025:
- • Market odds: 0.2% (Yes shares at ~$0.002)
- • Bet size: $10,647
- • Payout: ~$200,000
- • Return: ~20x
The Pope Leo XIV No Bet
The single largest profit came from betting "No" on Pope Leo XIV being the most searched person:
- • Position: No on Pope Leo XIV #1
- • Profit: ~$500,000+
- • Strategy: Bet against favorites
Other "No" Bets
Beyond the Pope bet, AlphaRaccoon profited from betting against:
- Bianca Censori: No for #1 most searched
- Donald Trump: No for #1 most searched
- Various celebrities: Multiple No positions
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How Did They Know?
The "Accidental Push" Theory
According to Meta engineer Jeong Haeju, who exposed the situation on X:
- • Google accidentally pushed the Year in Search results early
- • The results were visible briefly before being pulled
- • AlphaRaccoon may have seen the early data
- • Trades were placed immediately after the brief leak
On-Chain Evidence
- Timeline: $3M deposited last Friday, bets placed immediately
- Pattern: All 23 bets placed within a short window
- Size: Maximum position sizes on most bets
- Conviction: No hedging or diversification
Attempts to Hide
Username Change
After scrutiny began, the trader changed their Polymarket username:
- • Original name: AlphaRaccoon
- • New name: 0xafEe
- • Problem: Blockchain is transparent
- • Result: All trades still visible on-chain
The Legal Gray Area
No Clear Rules
Unlike traditional securities, prediction markets operate in a regulatory gray zone:
- • SEC oversight: Doesn't apply to prediction markets
- • CFTC rules: No explicit insider trading ban
- • Polymarket ToS: Platform rules unclear on information advantage
- • Precedent: No previous enforcement actions
Comparison to Previous Scandals
| Incident | Profit | Suspected Cause |
|---|---|---|
| AlphaRaccoon Google | $1M+ | Early data leak |
| AlphaRaccoon RFK | $1.7M | Cabinet timing |
| MicroStrategy | $140K | BTC purchase timing |
| Théo (French Whale) | $85M | No evidence—skill |
What Markets Were Affected
Google Year in Search 2025 Markets
- "Top 5 Most Searched People" - Multiple markets
- "#1 Most Searched Person" - Winner: d4vd
- "#1 Searched News" - Related markets
- Celebrity-specific markets - Various outcomes
Market Response
- Polymarket: No official statement yet
- Google: No comment on accidental data release
- Community: Calls for investigation
- Regulators: No indication of action
Key Takeaways
- AlphaRaccoon made $1M+ in under 24 hours on Google search markets
- Hit 22 of 23 bets correctly (95.6% win rate)
- Best trade: $10K → $200K on d4vd at 0.2% odds
- Largest profit: ~$500K from Pope Leo XIV "No" bet
- Google may have accidentally pushed results early
- Changed username from AlphaRaccoon to 0xafEe after exposure
- No clear legal framework for prediction market insider trading
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Frequently Asked Questions
AlphaRaccoon made $1 million+ in under 24 hours betting on Google's 2025 Year in Search results, hitting 22 out of 23 bets correctly (95.6% win rate).
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