Golden Globes & Oscars 2025: Complete Polymarket Odds Guide
Awards season 2025 is heating up on Polymarket, with Golden Globes nominations announced December 8 and the ceremony on January 11, 2026. Oscar nominations follow on January 23, with the ceremony on March 2. Here's the complete odds breakdown and how to trade entertainment markets.
Golden Globes 2025 Key Markets
Best Picture - Drama
| Film | Odds |
|---|---|
| The Brutalist | 35% |
| Conclave | 28% |
| September 5 | 18% |
| A Complete Unknown | 12% |
Best Picture - Musical/Comedy
| Film | Odds |
|---|---|
| Emilia Pérez | 45% |
| Anora | 32% |
| Wicked | 15% |
| A Real Pain | 8% |
Best Actress - Drama
| Actress | Film | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Fernanda Torres | I'm Still Here | 42% |
| Nicole Kidman | Babygirl | 28% |
| Angelina Jolie | Maria | 18% |
| Kate Winslet | Lee | 12% |
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Oscars 2025 Early Odds
Best Picture
| Film | Odds | Buzz Factor |
|---|---|---|
| Anora | 28% | Palme d'Or winner |
| The Brutalist | 24% | Venice Silver Lion |
| Emilia Pérez | 18% | Cannes Jury Prize |
| Conclave | 15% | Critical favorite |
| Wicked | 10% | Box office hit |
Best International Feature
| Film | Country | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Emilia Pérez | France | 38% |
| I'm Still Here | Brazil | 28% |
| The Seed of the Sacred Fig | Germany | 18% |
| Flow | Latvia | 10% |
Grammy Awards (February 2, 2025)
Song of the Year
| Song | Artist | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| "Luther" | Kendrick Lamar & SZA | 33% |
| "Birds of a Feather" | Billie Eilish | 28% |
| "Please Please Please" | Sabrina Carpenter | 22% |
| "Good Luck, Babe!" | Chappell Roan | 12% |
Album of the Year
| Album | Artist | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Hit Me Hard and Soft | Billie Eilish | 35% |
| Brat | Charli XCX | 25% |
| Short n' Sweet | Sabrina Carpenter | 20% |
| Cowboy Carter | Beyoncé | 15% |
Historical Prediction Market Accuracy
How have prediction markets performed on awards?
| Event | Correct/Total | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Golden Globes 2025 | 14/26 | 54% |
| Oscars 2024 | 18/23 | 78% |
| Grammys 2024 | 5/8 (major) | 63% |
Prediction markets are more accurate for Oscars (clear voting body, predictable patterns) than Golden Globes (smaller, more erratic voters).
Trading Strategies for Awards
Follow the Precursors
- Oscars: SAG, PGA, DGA winners are strong predictors
- Grammys: Billboard performance, streaming numbers matter
- Golden Globes: Hollywood Foreign Press is unpredictable
Key Dates to Trade Around
- Dec 8: Golden Globes nominations (odds adjust)
- Jan 11: Golden Globes ceremony (resolution)
- Jan 23: Oscar nominations (major odds shift)
- Feb 2: Grammy Awards (resolution)
- Mar 2: Oscars ceremony (resolution)
Arbitrage Opportunities
- Compare Polymarket odds to traditional betting sites
- Oscar pools often misprice international films
- Technical categories are often overlooked
Awards Season Volatility
Entertainment markets can swing 20-30% on a single review, screening, or precursor win. Position size accordingly and be prepared for rapid price movements.
Key Takeaways
- Golden Globes nominations out December 8, ceremony January 11
- "The Brutalist" and "Emilia Pérez" lead Golden Globes drama/comedy
- "Anora" is Oscar Best Picture frontrunner at 28%
- Grammys February 2: Billie Eilish favored for Album of the Year
- Markets are more accurate for Oscars (78%) than Golden Globes (54%)
- Trade around nomination announcements for biggest odds movements
Track Entertainment Market Whales
Industry insiders often trade awards markets early. PolyTrack helps you identify smart money positioning on Golden Globes, Oscars, and Grammy markets.
Frequently Asked Questions
"The Brutalist" leads at 35%, followed by "Conclave" (28%), "September 5" (18%), and "A Complete Unknown" (12%).
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