Best AI Model 2025: Google Leads at 78% on Polymarket

Polymarket traders are betting on which AI model will be crowned the best of 2025, and Google leads decisively at 78%. OpenAI trails at 14%, xAI at 5%, and Anthropic at just 2%. With $550K+ in volume, here's what the odds reveal about the AI race—and how whales are positioning for what could be the most consequential tech market of the year.

Current Market Odds

Why Google Dominates at 78%

Gemini 2.0 Launch

Google launched Gemini 2.0 in December 2025 with significant improvements:

• Native multimodality: Text, image, audio, and video generation in one model
• "Agentic" capabilities: Can autonomously browse web, execute code, interact with apps
• Flash variant: Faster, cheaper version already outperforming GPT-4
• Benchmark dominance: Top scores on multiple reasoning benchmarks
• Integration: Deep ties to Google Search, Workspace, Android ecosystem

Google's Infrastructure Advantage

• TPU v5: Custom AI chips optimized for large models
• Data moat: Access to Search, YouTube, Maps, Gmail data
• DeepMind merger: Combined brain trust of AI researchers
• Scale: Can deploy globally through existing cloud infrastructure

OpenAI's Position (14%)

What OpenAI Has

• ChatGPT dominance: 200M+ weekly users, massive consumer mindshare
• GPT-4o: Still highly competitive, especially in conversation
• o1/o3 reasoning models: New "reasoning" models with enhanced capabilities
• First-mover advantage: Defined the consumer AI category

What's Holding OpenAI Back

• GPT-5 delays: Expected in 2024, still not released in late 2025
• Leadership concerns: Key departures, safety team restructuring
• Compute constraints: Less infrastructure than Google
• Benchmark gap: Gemini 2.0 outperforming on key metrics

The Long Shots

xAI / Grok (5%)

Elon Musk's AI venture has made rapid progress:

• Grok 2: Competitive with GPT-4, integrated into X/Twitter
• Massive compute: Building one of the world's largest GPU clusters
• X data advantage: Exclusive access to real-time social media data
• Against: Behind on benchmarks, less research depth

Anthropic / Claude (2%)

Despite strong products, Anthropic's odds are surprisingly low:

• Claude 3.5: Praised for reasoning, coding, and safety
• Developer favorite: Popular in enterprise and technical use cases
• Against: Smaller scale than Google/OpenAI
• Against: Less aggressive on benchmark optimization

Meta / Llama (1%)

• Open source leader: Llama models freely available
• Rapid improvement: Llama 3 closed gap with proprietary models
• Against: Benchmark focus may not translate to "best" designation
• Against: Open source nature complicates direct comparison

Whale Activity Analysis

Google Bulls

Using PolyTrack to analyze whale positions:

• Multiple $20K+ positions taken on Google after Gemini 2.0 launch
• Some whales bought Google at 60-65¢ before the December surge
• Appears to be "smart money" with AI industry knowledge

OpenAI Value Hunters

• Some contrarian bets on OpenAI at 14¢ (7:1 payout potential)
• Theory: GPT-5 or o3 could leapfrog Gemini if released before year-end
• High-risk, high-reward positioning

Key Events That Could Move Odds

Trading Considerations

Is Google Overvalued at 78%?

Arguments for and against the current price:

• Fairly valued: Gemini 2.0 is genuinely leading benchmarks
• Overvalued: 78% leaves little upside, only 28% potential gain
• Risk: OpenAI surprise release could instantly shift market
• Consider: Small positions on OpenAI at 14% as hedge

Contrarian Plays

• OpenAI at 14%: 7:1 payout if GPT-5 delivers
• xAI at 5%: Musk's resources could enable surprise
• Anthropic at 2%: Extreme long shot but respected in technical circles

Why This Market Matters

Beyond betting, the AI model market reflects broader trends:

• Market capitalization: AI leadership drives trillions in stock value
• Developer ecosystem: Best model attracts most developers
• Enterprise adoption: Companies build on perceived leader
• Regulatory attention: Market leader faces most scrutiny
• Talent flow: Researchers want to work on winning team

Key Takeaways

• Google leads "Best AI Model 2025" market at 78%
• Gemini 2.0 launch drove odds up from ~60% to 78%
• OpenAI at 14% offers contrarian value if GPT-5 ships
• xAI (5%) and Anthropic (2%) are extreme long shots
• Resolution based on year-end benchmark rankings
• $550K+ volume reflects serious trader interest in AI race