Polymarket Arbitrage: How to Find Risk-Free Profits

Arbitrage on Polymarket offers guaranteed profits when executed correctly. By exploiting price inefficiencies, traders can lock in returns regardless of outcome. This guide covers multi-outcome arbitrage, cross-platform opportunities, and the risks you need to understand.

What is Polymarket Arbitrage?

Arbitrage exploits price differences to guarantee profit regardless of outcome. If you can buy all outcomes for less than $1.00 total, you profit when the market resolves.

Types of Arbitrage

Multi-Outcome Arbitrage

When all outcomes in a single market sum to less than 100%, arbitrage exists:

Cross-Platform Arbitrage

Price differences between Polymarket and other platforms (like Kalshi) create opportunities:

How to Calculate Arbitrage

Critical Risks

Execution Slippage

The #1 risk: Prices can move between your trades. You buy YES, but before buying NO, the price changes. Your "guaranteed" profit becomes a loss.

Resolution Disputes

Markets occasionally resolve unexpectedly due to ambiguous criteria or disputes. Your capital could be locked for weeks.

Capital Lock-up

Arbitrage profits aren't realized until resolution. A 2% profit locked for 3 months = 8% annualized. Short-duration markets are more attractive.

Execution Tips

• Execute both legs simultaneously (requires bot or fast manual trading)
• Focus on liquid markets where large orders don't move prices
• Account for fees (~$0.02 in gas for two transactions)
• Target 2%+ minimum edge after fees
• Use limit orders to avoid slippage

Is Arbitrage Still Profitable in 2025?

As Polymarket has grown, obvious arbitrage opportunities are rarer and shorter-lived. Bots capture most within seconds. However, opportunities still exist for:

• Low-liquidity markets where bots don't compete
• Newly created markets before algos discover them
• Cross-platform arbitrage (harder to automate)
• High-volatility events when prices swing rapidly

For API-based arbitrage, see our API guide and trading bot guide.