2028 Presidential Election: $600M+ Already Bet on Polymarket

It's December 2025—nearly three years before the 2028 election—and Polymarket already has $600+ million in volume on presidential race markets. JD Vance leads at 30%, Gavin Newsom dominates the Democratic field at 36%, and even ineligible candidates like Trump (5%) and Elon Musk (1%) have active odds. Here's the complete breakdown of who's favored, how whales are positioning, and what it means for early bettors.

Current 2028 Presidential Odds

Overall Winner Market ($143M Volume)

Other Notable Candidates

• Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson: 3-4% (peaked at 7% in August)
• Kamala Harris: 3-4%
• Marco Rubio: 3.5-4%
• Pete Buttigieg: 3%
• Josh Shapiro: 2%
• Elon Musk: 1.1% (constitutionally ineligible)

Republican Primary ($113M Volume)

JD Vance has a commanding lead in the Republican nomination race:

JD Vance Strategy: The MAGA Heir

Vance is positioning himself as Trump's natural successor by:

• Maintaining unwavering Trump loyalty to secure the MAGA base
• Taking a "Swiss Army Knife" approach—avoiding specific portfolio assignments
• Focusing on current VP duties while acknowledging 2028 possibility
• Polling at 42-46% among GOP voters (up from 37% in August)

Democratic Primary ($351M Volume)

The Democratic race is more competitive, with Gavin Newsom holding a narrower lead:

Gavin Newsom: "The Fighter"

California's governor is running an aggressive pre-campaign:

• Social media trolling of Trump, challenging Vance to debates
• Led successful Proposition 50 campaign against Republican redistricting
• Launched podcast, toured South Carolina (key primary state)
• Described as "light years ahead" in the invisible primary
• Planning book to address "San Francisco liberal" perception

AOC: The Progressive Wildcard

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is building momentum:

• "Fighting Oligarchy Tour" with Bernie Sanders across multiple states
• Raised $15M in 2025 (nearly double Speaker Mike Johnson), 99% small donors
• Nate Silver designated her his favorite for 2028 nomination
• More popular at this stage than Obama was 3 years before 2008
• Positioned as Bernie Sanders' heir apparent

Polymarket vs. Traditional Polls

There are significant differences between Polymarket odds and traditional polling:

Head-to-Head Polling

• Morning Consult (Nov 2025): Harris leads Vance by 1 point; Newsom trails by 1 point
• Emerson (Oct 2025): Vance 46%, Newsom 45%
• Overton Insights: Newsom leads Vance by 3 points

Prediction markets tend to weight money over sentiment—traders willing to bet real capital may have different information than poll respondents.

Surprising Candidates With Real Odds

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (3-4%)

The former wrestler and actor has legitimate odds despite never holding office:

• 392 million Instagram followers—massive name recognition
• Multiple parties have approached him about running
• 2023 poll: 46% of Americans would support his run
• Positioned as centrist/independent
• Peaked at 7% for Democratic nomination in August 2025

Ineligible Candidates

Some candidates with active odds face constitutional barriers:

• Donald Trump (5%): 22nd Amendment limits presidents to two terms
• Elon Musk (1.1%): Foreign-born citizens cannot serve as president

These odds reflect political influence rather than realistic candidacy, though some speculators bet on constitutional changes or creative interpretations.

How Early Is This?

For context on how unprecedented this early activity is:

• 2028 markets launched shortly after the 2024 election
• $600M+ volume already (3.5 years before Election Day)
• That's 16-20% of the volume the 2024 race had at its peak ($3.7B)
• At a comparable point before 2008, Obama hadn't registered in national polls
• Shows growing acceptance of prediction markets as political indicators

Trading Strategies for 2028 Markets

Long-Term Holds

With 3 years until resolution, position sizing and patience matter:

• Capital is locked for years—only bet what you won't need
• Odds will swing dramatically based on news cycles
• Early positions can offer better prices than closer to election

Event-Driven Trading

Major events that could move 2028 odds:

• 2026 midterm elections—if GOP loses badly, Vance odds may drop
• Early primary debates (likely 2027)
• Announcement timing—first mover advantage matters
• Trump's second term performance—affects Vance by association

Whale Watching

Use PolyTrack to monitor how large traders are positioning. In 2024, whale bets above $100K had the biggest market impact—the famous "French Whale" made $85M on Trump.

Key Takeaways

• $600M+ already bet on 2028 presidential markets (3 years out)
• JD Vance leads overall at 30%, dominates GOP at 55%
• Gavin Newsom leads Democrats at 36%, AOC at 11-18%
• Traditional polls show closer races than Polymarket odds
• Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson has legitimate 3-4% odds
• This is the most active early presidential market in history