Polymarket Movie Predictions: Minecraft at 95% for Top 2025 Film
Polymarket's "Highest Grossing Movie in 2025" market has seen $88M+ in trading volume with A Minecraft Movie dominating at 95% odds. Here's how prediction markets are forecasting box office performance and what traders are betting on.
Current Odds: Highest Grossing 2025
| Movie | Odds | Current Gross |
|---|---|---|
| A Minecraft Movie | 95.2% | $955M+ |
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | 2.9% | Dec 19 release |
| Zootopia 2 | <1% | Nov 26 release |
| Lilo & Stitch | <1% | $1.03B worldwide |
Market: Domestic calendar gross in 2025
Market Details
| Total Volume | $88M+ |
| Today's Volume | ~$1M |
| Liquidity | $5M |
| Resolution Source | Box Office Mojo |
| Market End | December 31, 2025 |
| Resolution | After Dec 31 data available |
A Minecraft Movie Dominance
Record-Breaking Performance
- Biggest opening day of 2025 for any Hollywood movie
- First 2025 film to hit $500M worldwide
- Surpassed Captain America: Brave New World ($413M)
- Based on the Minecraft video game with 300M+ players
- Jason Momoa, Jack Black starring
Why Markets Are So Confident
With 95% odds, traders see very few scenarios where Minecraft loses:
- $400M+ domestic lead: Competitors would need massive December runs
- Avatar 3 limited time: Only releases Dec 19—12 days to catch up
- Holiday legs: Minecraft still earning through Christmas
- No competitor close: Second place films well behind
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Other Box Office Markets
Active Markets
| Market | Volume | Leading Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Zootopia 2 5-Day Opening | $1M | >$157M: 68% |
| Wicked: For Good Weekend 2 | $139K | $85-93M: 76% |
| Various opening weekend markets | Various | — |
2025 Awards Season Markets
Oscars 2026 (For 2025 Films)
| Category | Leader | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Best Director | Paul Thomas Anderson | 79% |
| Best Picture Nomination | Hamnet | 97% |
| Various acting categories | Multiple markets | — |
For the 97th Academy Awards (Oscars 2025, awarded March 2025 for 2024 films), Polymarket correctly predicted several winners. The awards season markets continue into 2026.
Trading Strategies
Box Office Market Dynamics
- Opening weekend momentum: Strong opens often predict total gross
- Holdover patterns: Holiday films have longer legs
- Competition awareness: Watch for release date shifts
- China factor: Some markets include/exclude China gross
Value Hunting
At 95% odds for Minecraft, is there value elsewhere?
- Avatar 3 at 2.9%: Would need $600M+ domestic in 12 days—unlikely
- Black swan potential: Market disruption, technical issues, or massive December surprise
- Risk/reward: 5¢ to win $1 on underdog vs 95¢ for 5¢ profit on Minecraft
Market Resolution Note
This market resolves based on domestic calendar gross in 2025. Revenue earned outside 2025 (e.g., Avatar 3's January 2026 earnings) won't count. Box Office Mojo is the resolution source.
2025 Box Office Context
Worldwide Leaders
| Movie | Worldwide Gross |
|---|---|
| Ne Zha 2 | $2.2B |
| Lilo & Stitch | $1.03B |
| A Minecraft Movie | $955M+ |
| Various others | $400-700M range |
Ne Zha 2 dominated China but had limited US release
Upcoming December Releases
Markets to watch for late December:
- Avatar: Fire and Ash (Dec 19): Could challenge if it opens huge
- Zootopia 2 (Nov 26): Strong Thanksgiving performer
- Wicked: For Good: Sequel continuing Part 1's success
- Various holiday releases: Family films tend to overperform
Key Takeaways
- A Minecraft Movie at 95% odds to be highest-grossing 2025 film
- $88M+ volume in the highest grossing movie market
- Avatar 3 only has 12 days of 2025 to catch up (releases Dec 19)
- Resolution based on domestic gross per Box Office Mojo
- Oscars 2026 markets active for 2025 film awards
- Minecraft: First 2025 Hollywood film to $500M worldwide
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Frequently Asked Questions
A Minecraft Movie is at 95.2% odds. Avatar: Fire and Ash at 2.9%. Zootopia 2 and Lilo & Stitch both under 1%.
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